While we’re waiting for Philadelphia I share an incredible card reading by Claudio Nunes. It was at the 2008 Olympiad (or World Mind Sports Games) semifinal.

In the other semifinal both north-south pairs reached four spades and went down on a trump lead when they tried a diamond to the queen and later a finesse with the ten. While in Italy vs Norway Helgemo-Helness subsided in 2 spades making three. Nunes-Fantoni reached the game and a trump was led. He drew trumps as Tundall discarded a small heart. A club went to the jack and the next club was taken with the ace. Groetheim played a small heart to his partner’s ace who played another club. Nunes cahed the last club and discarded a heart from dummy as west parted with a heart and east with a diamond. Now Nunes made the key play of leading the queen of diamonds to the king and ace. He returned to hand with a heart ruff and played a diamond to the eight making the contract.

This diamond handling is good only when west has the king and nine of diamonds or when east has the king and west the jack. This is a lot worse (looks like 50%) then the basically 75% play which the other two declarers tried.

Maybe he could deduce from the opening lead and defence that this is more probable though it’s hard to see how.